How far back should we look? Long-term grassland changes can reshape restoration targets

How much grassland has Hungary lost, and what should restoration aim to recover? A new study by Biró, Halassy, Bölöni, Demeter and Molnár, published in the Journal of Environmental Management, shows why these
questions require a long-term perspective.

Using the Habitat Trend Database of Hungary, which covers 5,000 sample localities and eight historical time points over 240 years, the researchers reconstructed changes in grassland extent and continuity. Grassland cover declined from 37.6% in the 18th century to 9.2% today.

Overall, 86.3% of semi-natural grasslands disappeared over the 240-year period. Only 8.7% of the semi-natural grasslands present in the 18th century have persisted continuously, while 67% of today's semi-natural grasslands have remained grassland throughout this period. 

These findings demonstrate why restoration planning should consider long-term historical data. Relying only on recent conditions can obscure the scale of past losses and lead to restoration targets shaped by the shifting baseline syndrome.

Reference: Biró, M., Halassy, M., Bölöni, J., Demeter, L., & Molnár, Z. (2026). How far back should we look? Long-term grassland changes to inform habitat restoration planning. Journal of Environmental Management, 415, 130511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130511